Pythagorean + Elo

MLB Baseball Predictions with Pythagorean Model

Win probabilities and expected runs for all 30 MLB teams — using Pythagorean expectation and Elo ratings calibrated to MLB scoring averages.

30
Teams
~4.5
Avg runs/game
Pythagorean + Elo
Model
Extra innings
No draws

How the MLB Baseball Model Works

MLB predictions use the Pythagorean expectation model (expected wins based on runs scored/allowed) blended with Elo ratings. Expected runs follow a Poisson distribution calibrated to MLB averages (~4.5 runs per team per game). No draws in baseball — extra innings decide tied games.

Supported MLB Baseball Leagues

What You Get

Win Probabilities

Clear win/draw/loss percentages for every match, updated in real time.

Expected Scores

Most likely final scores based on team attack and defense parameters.

XLSX Export

Download a full prediction spreadsheet with scoreline matrix and methodology.

Frequently Asked Questions

Ready to get your MLB Baseball edge?

7-day free trial. No credit card required.