🏀Elo + Normal Distribution

NBA Predictions with Mathematical Edge

Win probabilities and expected scores for every NBA game — calibrated to 110+ points per team per game using Elo and Normal distribution models.

30
Teams
~110
Avg points/game
Elo + Normal
Model
5–15
Games per day

How the NBA Model Works

NBA scoring is modeled with a Normal distribution calibrated to league averages (~110 points per team per game). Elo ratings track team strength across the season. The model outputs win probability, expected total score, and spread estimate for each matchup.

Supported NBA Leagues

What You Get

Win Probabilities

Clear win/draw/loss percentages for every match, updated in real time.

Expected Scores

Most likely final scores based on team attack and defense parameters.

XLSX Export

Download a full prediction spreadsheet with scoreline matrix and methodology.

Frequently Asked Questions

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