🏈Elo + Normal Distribution

NFL Predictions Backed by Data

Win probabilities, expected points, and spread analysis for every NFL game — using Elo ratings and Normal distribution scoring models.

32
Teams
Elo + Normal
Model
~3 pts
Home advantage
14–16
Games per week

How the NFL Model Works

NFL scoring follows a Normal distribution calibrated to league averages (~24 points per team per game). Elo ratings capture team strength and recent form. The model outputs win probability, expected total points, and a point spread estimate for every matchup.

Supported NFL Leagues

What You Get

Win Probabilities

Clear win/draw/loss percentages for every match, updated in real time.

Expected Scores

Most likely final scores based on team attack and defense parameters.

XLSX Export

Download a full prediction spreadsheet with scoreline matrix and methodology.

Frequently Asked Questions

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