🏉Poisson + Elo

Rugby Predictions with Statistical Models

Win/draw/loss probabilities and expected points for rugby union and league matches — using Poisson distribution and Elo ratings.

Poisson + Elo
Model
Win/Draw/Loss
Outcomes
Yes
Expected scores
Highlighted
Value bets

How the Rugby Model Works

Rugby scoring is modeled with a Poisson distribution calibrated to typical match averages. Elo ratings capture team strength. The model outputs win/draw/loss probabilities and expected points for each team.

Supported Rugby Leagues

What You Get

Win Probabilities

Clear win/draw/loss percentages for every match, updated in real time.

Expected Scores

Most likely final scores based on team attack and defense parameters.

XLSX Export

Download a full prediction spreadsheet with scoreline matrix and methodology.

Frequently Asked Questions

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